Developing Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping Techniques for Consequence Analysis of Second and Third Order Effects

Abstract

The Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) is the Department of Defense’s (DOD) official Combat Support Agency for countering weapons of mass destruction (WMD). DTRA focuses on WMD and mitigating the consequences of a chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and high yield explosive threat (CBRNE). The initial direct effects of a CBRNE incident are well defined and documented; however, the second and third order effect’s are complex and not thoroughly understood or documented.  Consequence analysis is the practice of analyzing the effects of major events such as a CBRNE event and can assist in predicting the second and third order effects.  Currently there is no method to predict or analyze the second and third order effects of CBRNE events. This research focused on identifying the entities associated with a CBRNE event initially.  The use of experts and surveys developed an exhaustive list of entities and associated realtionships.  The follow-on research focused on the type and strength of the entity relationships.  Next, Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) techniques identify and evaluate the complex relationships of the second and third order effects.   Using a mind mapping computer program, FCM techniques produced second and third order effect relationships.  The final product provided a solid first attempt at analyzing a CBRNE event and the associated second and third order effects.  Subsequent research will require greater effort to employ system dynamics techniques to enhance the product and develop a more thorough model.